Ngày 31-01-2008, 11:45 | |||||||||||||||||
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Wednesday, January 30, 2008
2008: VN-Index sẽ tăng 36%?
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Sẽ “bội thực” cổ phiếu ngân hàng?
Ngày 31-01-2008, 11:59 | ||||||||||
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30/1: Hầu hết cổ phiếu tăng trần, VN-Index bứt phá
;)
Monday, January 28, 2008
Wall Street jitters as uncertainty continues
Wall Street jitters as uncertainty continues
- Story Highlights
- Wall Street fluctuates on Monday opening, recovering slightly after early fall
- European and Asian markets earlier tumbled in the wake of its Friday sell-off
- However, Europe's main three indexes slightly recover after Wall Street opens
- Persistent fears of U.S. and worldwide economic slowdown hurting indexes
NEW YORK (AP) -- An uneasy Wall Street fluctuated Monday after heavy selloffs in Asian and European stocks and its own sharp drop Friday.
Japanese stocks fell sharply Monday after traders took their cues from Wall Street.
Upbeat earnings reports out of Verizon Communications and McDonald's failed to give the market an early lift.
Investors around the world are concerned there may be more massive write-downs by big banks for subprime loan losses.
They also worry that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as much as investors would like on Wednesday to stoke a weakening U.S. economy.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.31 percent before climbing 0.31 percent to 12,245 at 1740 GMT.
Broader stock indicators also fell initially, with the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 0.31 percent before bouncing back to an increase of 0.49 percent at to 1,337.
The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.56 percent but was then back up 0.18 percent to 2,330.
Global market turmoil earlier continued into a second week as European and Asian markets tumbled Monday in the wake of Wall Street's sell-off Friday amid persistent worries about a possible U.S. -- and worldwide -- economic slowdown.
In Europe, Britain's FTSE dipped 1.36 percent to 5,789 at Monday's close. Germany's DAX recovered slightly from a midday 1.6 percent fall to end the day 0.03 percent up at 6819.
France's CAC 40 had declined 2.2 percent midway through, but improved to 0.61 percent down at 4848.
In Asia, China's benchmark index plummeted 7.2 percent to its lowest point in six months on concerns that a recession in the U.S. would mean less demand for Chinese-made products.
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Investors around the world have been jittery for weeks about a U.S. slump, which would likely weaken demand for exports and drag on global growth. There is also concern about a worldwide credit crunch triggered by rising defaults in risky U.S. mortgages, which has led to mountains of bad assets at major American and European banks.
"There's a lot of uncertainty out there: uncertainty over the U.S. economy, uncertainty over China's economy," said Rob Hart, an analyst with Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong.
"People are also worried about contagion in Europe. If the U.S slows down, will it trigger a slowdown in Europe?" he said.
In Asia, Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 4 percent to close at 13,087.91, erasing its jump on Friday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index sank 4.3 percent.
Declines were more modest in India, where the Sensex index -- which plunged 4 percent in the first 10 minutes of trading -- was down just 1.1 percent in late afternoon trading.
The sharpest declines came in China, where the Shanghai Composite index plunged 342.39 points to 4,419.29 amid worries about weaker demand from American consumers. Concerns over the potential impact of a prolonged bout of severe winter weather also took a toll.
"Investors, especially institutional investors, are very cautious," said Chen Huiqin, an analyst at Nanjing-based Huatai Securities. She said investors were waiting for possible "market rescuing" signals from the Chinese government.
"That could have a strong impact on the market," Chen said.
Global markets dropped sharply early last week on worries about slower U.S. growth. They rebounded after a hefty three-quarters cut in U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve last Tuesday, as well as news of a U.S. stimulus package that Washington is hammering out.
But investors in Asia and Europe dumped shares again Monday after Wall Street sank Friday, when the Dow Jones slid 1.38 percent and the technology-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.47 percent.
Some traders said Asian markets were dropping on concern that the Fed may not slash interest rates again -- or as much as expected -- when its policy planners meet Tuesday and Wednesday.
"The possibility for a 50 basis points cut is looking less likely," said Castor Pang, a strategist at Sun Hung Kai Financial in Hong Kong, pointing to future prices in New York.
Dow futures were down 80 points, or 0.65 percent, to 12,156, while Nasdaq futures were down 16.5 points, or 0.92 percent, to 1,777.
Japan's economy may already be contracting, said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan.
He pointed out that five of the 11 components of Japan's business condition diffusion index have already hit highs and begun to deteriorate. Declines in six of the 11 components often indicates a recession is coming.
TTCK Việt Nam - Bao giờ lại khởi sắc?
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TTCK Việt Nam - Bao giờ lại khởi sắc? | ||
Đó là nhận định của tác giả Grant McCool trong một bài viết gần đây về TTCK Việt Nam, đăng trên trang tin Reuters. Mặc dù sự sụt giảm của TTCK Việt Nam trong tháng 1/2008 là nằm trong xu hướng chung của thị trường toàn cầu, nhưng các yếu tố nội tại, như chính sách tiền tệ chặt chẽ hơn và quy định giới hạn quyền sở hữu của nhà đầu tư nước ngoài, được xem là có tác động mạnh hơn nhiều so với tác động từ cuộc khủng hoảng tín dụng toàn cầu và những thông tin về nguy cơ kinh tế Mỹ suy thoái đang gây ảnh hưởng đến các thị trường phát triển hơn. Chỉ chiếm 20% khối lượng giao dịch, nhà đầu tư nước ngoài đã hy vọng rằng các đợt IPO của nhiều doanh nghiệp lớn sẽ có tác dụng kích thích sự phát triển của thị trường vốn Việt Nam, nước có tốc độ tăng trưởng kinh tế 8,5%/năm. Tuy nhiên, trong tháng đầu năm 2008, cơ quan quản lý đã yêu cầu các công ty tiếp tục hoãn phát hành thêm cổ phiếu (CP) vì cho rằng TTCK có thể sẽ không đủ khả năng tiếp nhận thêm CP. Chỉ số VN-Index của Sở giao dịch chứng khoán TP.HCM (HOSE) đã giảm 16% trong tháng 1/2008, sau khi tăng 23% trong năm 2007. Kết thúc ngày giao dịch cuối cùng của tuần trước, 25/1, VN-Index chốt ở mức 776,04 điểm, tăng 1,6% sau khi đã sụt xuống mức thấp nhất trong vòng 1 năm qua vào phiên trước. Nhiều nhà đầu tư không kỳ vọng giá CP sẽ tăng, ít nhất là cho đến giữa tháng 2, tức là sau dịp Tết Nguyên đán. Ông Kevin Snowball, Giám đốc công ty quản lý tài sản PXP Việt Theo kế hoạch, đợt IPO của bốn ngân hàng nhà nước dự kiến hoàn thành vào cuối năm ngoái, nhưng trên thực tế chỉ có Vietcombank “đúng hẹn” vào cuối tháng 12/2007. Tuần trước đã có thông báo về việc tiếp tục hoãn IPO của Ngân hành Nông nghiệp và Phát triển nông thôn (Agribank), ngân hàng thương mại nhà nước lớn nhất Việt Nam, và việc lùi thời gian lên sàn của cổ phiếu Vietcombank, dự kiến đến giữa năm 2008. (Theo giải thích của tác giả bài viết, tại Việt Việc định giá cổ phiếu Vietcombank, ngân hàng thương mại lớn thứ 3 Việt Nam, cũng đã gây lúng túng cho một số nhà đầu tư và phần nào dẫn đến tình trạng rao bán CP trước khi lên sàn. Bên cạnh đó, nhiều ý kiến cho rằng đợt IPO của Tổng Công ty bia-rượu-nước giải khát Sài Gòn (Sabeco), dự kiến diễn ra vào hôm nay, 28/1, sẽ không thật sự hấp dẫn đối với các nhà đầu tư. Theo ông Dickon Verey, Giám đốc kinh doanh của Công ty chứng khoán Mekong (Mekong Securities) tại TP.HCM, hiện tượng nhiều nhà đầu tư bỏ mua cổ phiếu Vietcombank sau đấu giá và số lượng đăng ký đấu giá Sabeco thấp hơn kế hoạch cho thấy các nhà đầu tư không còn mấy hào hứng với các đợt IPO, dù là của công ty lớn. Quy mô TTCK Việt Nam đã tăng gấp 3 lần từ thời điểm cuối năm 2005 đến cuối năm 2007, nhưng hiện tại không có ai kỳ vọng thị trường có thể tăng trưởng tương tự trong năm 2008. Vài tháng trở lại đây, các nhà đầu tư Việt Trong khi đó, các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài còn có ít sự lựa chọn hơn, khi việc sở hữu cổ phần bị giới hạn ở tỷ lệ 49% đối với khối doanh nghiệp và 30% đối với khối ngân hàng. Trước mắt chưa có kế hoạch thay đổi nào. Nỗ lực của chính phủ Việt Nam trong việc kiểm soát tình trạng lạm phát, bằng cách hạn chế nguồn cung Việt Nam đồng, cũng đã tạo những khó khăn nhất định cho nhà đầu tư nước ngoài. Cùng với chính sách thắt chặt tiền tệ và việc hoãn các đợt IPO, kế hoạch đánh thuế thu nhập chứng khoán cũng đã gây tác động xấu đến thị trường, theo ông Lê Nhị Năng, Phó Tổng Giám đốc HOSE. “Số lượng các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài đang tăng lên,” ông Lê Nhị Năng nói, "”nhưng chính sách tiền tệ của chúng ta không tạo thuận lợi cho các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài.” Đặng Lê Theo Reuters | ||
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
This is the great cyclical cleansing
We had the 'de-crudding' in one day back in 1987. After the tsunami rolled in overnight from across the Pacific.
This time, we've pre-empted Wall St. In these days of globalised real-time trading, our market's 7 per cent drop yesterday was in anticipation of the Dow opening 500 points down on its Friday close.
And then going who knows where. Or feared.
More pointedly, this big one-day point loss yesterday came after the market had already gone down 18 per cent in barely two months.
This has given us two chilling figures. A $100 billion single-day loss in share values, double the dollars lost in the, albeit much bigger percentage, drop in October 1987.
Making total losses since the market peaked, so bullishly and so wildly inaccurately in November, approaching $400 billion.
Again, never before have we lost that sum from share values, as we've never previously 'had it to lose'.
Back in 1987 I noted two positives. The loss had been so dramatic, it was almost clinically surgical. Plus it only 'gave back' the last exaggerated run-up in over-inflated share prices.
So for most people they'd hardly had the extra value long enough to notice its loss.
Although it hasn't happened all in one day this time, there is a similar thread of rapid rise and loss.
The market is now back to where it was in October 2006.
So yes, you might have lost all the increase since then, but you still have - we all have - all the huge rise in share values from 2001 through 2006.
Speaking very broadly, that much of the rise is built on firmer foundations. Of the real strength in the economy; most obviously the benefits bestowed by China.
And which are sustainable into the longer term. If not necessarily quite to the extent of the more starry-eyed projections of China (and India) boundless.
Now there are key fundamental similarities between now and 1987. Adding up to a bubble that had to burst at some point.
Then the paper-shuffling entrepreneurs. Now the private equity and other financial whiz kids. And one time-dishonored constant - debt.
Back then it was banks shovelling billions to Bond and mates. Today, it was (US) banks shovelling much smaller sums, but to many more, NINJAs.
No-income, no-job or assets home-loan borrowers.
And then spreading the infection across not just the US financial system, but the world's, through the securitisation of those mortgages. The sub-prime syndrome and its subsequent meltdown.
Now that is obviously the proximate cause of the slump on Wall St, which has then spread directly and indirectly across the globe.
Direct share market drops. Huge Citigroup and Merrill Lynch writedowns. Centro and RAMs. They are all part of the disease. All feeding off and fanning the infection.
But there's a much bigger issue behind all this. And both it and its ultimate playing out will really determine where all this goes. And how quickly.
Simply, that much of the growth in the US economy, its share market and incomes and wealth has pivoted on China.
But not just on China as a new source of global growth, but an elaborate global re-channelling of money.
At its simplest China making and selling to US consumers; and lending them the money to buy, by investing the trade surpluses in US investments.
The whole sub-prime edifice would never have been able to be erected but for this.
It was always at best merely unsustainable; but more likely at risk of the sort of implosion we are seeing now.
This is really the most troubling difference with 1987. But at the same time, the most encouraging.
China's economic development is real enough. So surely once we've 'de-crudded' we can get back to real basics.
The sort of real basics that 20 years ago, took to the early 1990s to re-emerge, after the bank disasters and the recession we had to have.
So both the nervous uncertainty and the encouraging upside turn on the US.
Not on what happened overnight. If it finished bad, we'll have to take more pain today. Not even where Wall St goes over the next weeks or even months.
But what happens in the real, basic US economy. Does it go into recession? How deep and for how long?
Now it is very much, it is entirely, a matter of the US recession they (and the rest of us) have to have.
A stronger, more competitive, more fundamentally healthy US economy is needed to put the US-China-Australia virtuous circle back on track.
There's a great chance of that happening. But it's going to happen after and through an awful lot of volatility right through 2008.
Don't rush back into the water too quickly. But keep your bathers on.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Horror day for Australian stock market
AUSTRALIAN shares have taken a battering today after European share markets plunged overnight on fears of a US recession with investors bracing for a global stock-market crash.
For local share investors, financial horror has firmly set in as their wealth washes away.
For retirees, their savings are shrinking as superannuation funds post huge losses, with yesterday's share market plunge wiping more than $40 billion from personal investors and superannuation funds.
And the losses are growing. In early trade today, the S&P/ASX200 had plunged 210 points by 10:12am AEDT to 5376.1, or down 3.7 per cent.
By 12 noon AEDT, the losses had mounted with the S&P/ASX200 down 5 per cent or 278.6 points to 5301.8.
The S&P/ASX200 so far this year has lost $146.9 billion of its value, with $32.8 billion alone lost yesterday. Panic, risk aversion and, increasingly, lenders' margin calls are behind the drop.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index is now down more than 20 per cent from its life high of 6851.5 reached in November 2007, indicating a slip into bear market territory.
A bear market is seen as a long period of falling prices marked by investor pessimism. It is often calculated as having begun when stocks fall 20 per cent from whatever peak they have hit during the recent cycle.
And the future is not bright in the world's biggest economy. While US markets were closed overnight for a holiday, US stock index futures were down sharply, suggesting investors were preparing to flee the US stock market when the market reopens later today.
The Australian stock market yesterday was in freefall for the 11th consecutive day - the All Ordinaries tumbled 168 points to 5630 points, down 2.9 per cent.
Of the 478 companies listed on the ASX, 333 fell and 45 were unchanged.
The local stock market collapse is the longest losing streak since January 1982 and yesterday was the All Ordinaries' worst day since this year’s fall began - wiping out the huge gains of 2007.
Global rout just begun
Iin Asia, investors too sold off stocks yesterday, carrying through from last week's concern on Wall Street that a $US150 billion ($174 billion) fiscal stimulus proposed by President George W. Bush would not be enough to stop a US recession.
To heighten fears of global financial doom, the IMF warned overnight the global financial outlook is dire.
The IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said overnight all developed countries were suffering from the slowdown in the US putting the world economy in a serious situation.
European markets drop
His comments came after European stock markets fell sharply and demand for safe-haven bonds and currencies soared on fears a US recession, prompted by last year’s sub-prime mortgage crisis.
European stock markets posted losses of more than 5 per cent in many centres. In London, the FTSE 100 index plunged 5.48 per cent to 5578.20 points, the largest one day loss since September 11.
In Paris, the CAC 40 index lost 6.83 per cent to 4744,45 points and in Frankfurt the DAX shed 7.16 per cent to 6790.19 points, also the biggest single-day losses since the September 11 terror attacks.
Russian stocks tumbled more than 7 per cent by close of trading overnight in the knock-on effect from global financial woes that badly hit other bourses.
With AFP and Reuters